There is a moderate risk today for the Texas panhandle. The tornado risk is currently at 10% should set up for a good dryline play. Jeff will be on this same system tomorrow as it moves to the east into Oklahoma.

The SPC said this: MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STG   VERTICAL SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR   SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD  BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT OVER SE CO/FAR ERN NM AND  MUCH OF W TX.  WITH MODERATE SLY LLJ LIKELY TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE  TO CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF GRT BASIN UPR TROUGH...THE  RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT A BIT LATER THIS EVE MAY EXIST  OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT TX S PLNS...NEAR SFC  WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRY LINE INTERSECTION.
  

There is a High risk today for severe weather for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. The tornado risk is currently at 30% for the area. FStorm motion will be fast and Strong lived tornadoes are possible. Jeff is currently in Wichita, KS and looking to make a play at Arkansas area to start the day. My main concern is this morning's convection and i'm hoping it to clear out for good day time heating. If this indeed does take place people in the area should take extreme caution. Jeff will be streaming live with sound later today.

The SPC said this: A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL  AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE KS

There is a moderate risk today for Ohio and Indiana area as a upper system Low continues to make its way eastward. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 10%. There is a slight risk as well for most of the Ohio river valley.

There is a slight risk today for the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes area today. The tornado risk for the area is at 2%. WIind is the main threat with the storms today.

The SPC said this: SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS /WITH 30 KT SWLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 50+ KT WLY FLOW AT 500 MB/...COUPLED WITH EXPECTED   INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SIZABLE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE  PBL...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SVR  WIND/HAIL.  THE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO BKN LINE SEGMENTS WITH
   SMALL BOWS THAT CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NY/NW PA THROUGH THE EVE.  BUT   THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE RELATIVELY DRY PREFRONTAL AIR QUICKLY COOLS.

There is a moderate risk today for portions of the Midwest and Dixie Alley. A upper trough system continues to make its way eastward. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 10% with the main tornado threat in AR and MO. Tornado Watches are currently in effect.

Ther SPC said this: For AR/MO: LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP THE SUPERCELLS REMAIN DISCRETE BUT THE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AS WELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR SHOW SFC WINDS BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS
 COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO.

There is a slight risk today for the central and northern plains as a upper level trough continues to make its way eastward. This included portions of OK, KS, NE, MO, IA, SD, and MN. The tornado risk is currently at 5%. Jeff will be streaming Live video today from South East Kansas and will be testing video with sound.

 The SPC said this: ACTIVITY SHOULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS IT OVERTAKES THE SURFACE TRIPLE-POINT  OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NEB AND WESTERN IA THROUGH THE  EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER  STORMS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO
  WEAKEN SOON AFTER DARK.

There is a high risk today for severe weather for what is Known as Dixie Alley. This is taking place a a upper lever trough continues to make its way eastward. This is the first High Risk of the season. This high risk includes MS, AL, and parts of TN. There is currently a 30% chance for tornadoes. Outside of the high risk is a moderate and a slight risk for much of the rest of Dixie alley. It is possible for Jeff to have live video today for IA and MO areas.

The SPC said this: ...LA/MS/AL/TN...  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS   MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY   SURFACE COLD FRONT.  RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION ARE LEADING TO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH  NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING MID LEVEL ROTATION.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL   SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND TN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING.
  
   A FEW HOURS OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE  STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND  POTENTIALLY INTO MIDDLE TN.  THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE  MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THIS EVENT...WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING TORNADOES   AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO  WESTERN GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

High Risk for today, 4-24-10, for Dixie Alley

There is a high risk for today for what is know as DIxie Alley. This high risk includes MS, AL, and portions of TN.This is the first high risk of the year. The high risk currently has a 30% chance for tornadoes. Out side of the High risk is a moderate risk and then a slight for most of the rest of dixie alley. Jeff may have live video in IA/MO area later today.

The SPC said this: ...LA/MS/AL/TN...

 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT.  RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION ARE LEADING TO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH  NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING MID LEVEL ROTATION.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL   SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND TN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING.
  
   A FEW HOURS OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE  STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND   POTENTIALLY INTO MIDDLE TN.  THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE   MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THIS EVENT...WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING TORNADOES  AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO
 WESTERN GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for much of TX, KS, OK, and western CO. The tornado risk is currently at 10% for west TX and west OK, and 5% else where in the west portion of the slight risk. Jeff is currently in Dodge City, KS as a target for now going on the tripple point play. He will be streaming live today. Be sure to follow on twiter for live updates.

 The SPC said this:

KS: EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE CELLS TO PRODUCE LARGE  HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN CO INTO WRN  KS WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT.

OK/TX: THE INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX PANHANDLE BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN OK...FOLLOWED BY A MORE  EXTENSIVE BAND OF STORMS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE   SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD TONIGHT.  STRONG DEEP   LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL GENERATION...ESPECIALLY  WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM INITIALLY...AND THE COMBINATION  OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL RESULT   IN A FEW STRONGER SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL  AND TORNADOES.  
  

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for Oklahama and Texas panhandles and for south east Colorado. Here the tornado risk is currently at 5%. There is also a slight risk west CO, WY, ID and UT.

The SPC said this: FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  FOR PERSISTENT STORMS...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS   EVENING WITH A DEVELOPING 25-35 KT SLY/SSELY LLJ.  A COUPLE OF  TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE  POSSIBLE FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.