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Weather Blog
5-19-10 High Risk PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jeff Gonzales   
Wednesday, 19 May 2010


High Risk today, 5-19-10, for Oklahoma

5-19-10trn.gifThe risk for today has been upgraded to a high risk for central Oklahoma today for severe weather and a tornado risk currently of 30% as an upper low continues to make its way eastward. Jeff and Tammy will both be streaming live today from the Oklahoma area.

The SPC said this:   THE STORMS WILL 5-19-10hrj.gifQUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG.  THE SETUP APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.  GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

Last Updated ( Wednesday, 19 May 2010 )
 
5-18-10 Mod Risk PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jeff Gonzales   
Tuesday, 18 May 2010


Moderate Risk today, 5-18-10, for Texas Panhandle

5-18-10tr.gifThere is a moderate risk today for the Texas panhandle. The tornado risk is currently at 10% should set up for a good dryline play. Jeff will be on this same system tomorrow as it moves to the east into Oklahoma.

The SPC said this: MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STG   VERTICAL SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR   SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE 5-18-10mr.gifHAIL AND SOME TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD  BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT OVER SE CO/FAR ERN NM AND  MUCH OF W TX.  WITH MODERATE SLY LLJ LIKELY TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE  TO CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF GRT BASIN UPR TROUGH...THE  RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT A BIT LATER THIS EVE MAY EXIST  OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT TX S PLNS...NEAR SFC  WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRY LINE INTERSECTION.
  

 
High Risk 5-10-10 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jeff Gonzales   
Monday, 10 May 2010


High Risk today, 5-10-10, for KS and OK

5-10-10hr.gifThere is a High risk today for severe weather for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. The tornado risk is currently at 30% for the area. FStorm motion will be fast and Strong lived tornadoes are possible. Jeff is currently in Wichita, KS and looking to make a play at Arkansas area to start the day. My main concern is this morning's convection and i'm hoping it to clear out for good day time heating. If this indeed does take place people in the area should take extreme caution. Jeff will be streaming live with sound later today.

The SPC said this: A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL  AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE KS

Last Updated ( Monday, 10 May 2010 )
 
4-7-10 Moderate Risk PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jeff Gonzales   
Friday, 07 May 2010


Moderate Risk today, 5-7-10, for OH and IN

4-7-10tr.gifThere is a moderate risk today for Ohio and Indiana area as a upper system Low continues to make its way eastward. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 10%. There is a slight risk as well for most of the Ohio river valley.

The SPC said this: PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS   WILL INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN   IL/NORTHWEST IND.  STORMS WILL LIKELY RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE   MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR   SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES. 

 

Last Updated ( Friday, 07 May 2010 )
 
5-5-10 Slight Risk PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jeff Gonzales   
Wednesday, 05 May 2010


Slight Risk today, 5-5-10, for Ohio and Great Lakes area

5-5-10sr.gifThere is a slight risk today for the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes area today. The tornado risk for the area is at 2%. WIind is the main threat with the storms today.

The SPC said this: SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS /WITH 30 KT SWLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 50+ KT WLY FLOW AT 500 MB/...COUPLED WITH EXPECTED   INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SIZABLE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE  PBL...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SVR  WIND/HAIL.  THE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO BKN LINE SEGMENTS WITH
   SMALL BOWS THAT CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NY/NW PA THROUGH THE EVE.  BUT   THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE RELATIVELY DRY PREFRONTAL AIR QUICKLY COOLS.

 
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Jeff's 2010 Stats

  •  Chases: 14
  • Miles: 7840
  • States: NE, IA, MO, KS, CO, MN, OK, SD 
  • Tornadoes: 19
  • Hail: ping pong ball 

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