Slight Risk today, 10-29-09, for TX, OK, and Miss.River Valley area

There is a slight risk today for Texas, Oklahoma, and portions of lower Mississippi River Valley area. The tornado risk has been upgraded to 10%. Live Video is possible today in Texas.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COULD BE IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL. WV IMAGERY INDICATING .WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS. SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO COLD/STABLE DOWNDRAFTS AND ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OFFSET MORE A MORE WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SRH IN THE RANGE OF 300-500 M2/S2 AND 50KT FLOW WITHIN 1KM OF THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.