Slight Risk today, 5-20-09,  for W. NE & S. FL

There is a slight risk for severe weather today for western Nebraska and southern Flordia areas. A cold front currently over the western Dekotas will continue to move south east producing severe weather. The tornado risk for the W. NE area is currently at 2%, however the tornado risk is at 5% for the southern FL area.

The SPC said this: 

W. NE:  SLY PRE-FRONTAL SFC WINDS BENEATH 25-30 KT WSWLY FLOW AT MID LVLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW WITH WEAK MID-LVL ROTATION. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT... SETUP MAY YIELD STRONG...EVAPORATIVELY-ENHANCED SFC WINDS AND SVR HAIL.

S. FL: SLY PRE-FRONTAL SFC WINDS BENEATH 25-30 KT WSWLY FLOW AT MID LVLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW WITH WEAK MID-LVL ROTATION. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT... SETUP MAY YIELD STRONG...EVAPORATIVELY-ENHANCED SFC WINDS AND SVR HAIL.

  Moderate Risk today, 5-15-09, for KS and MO

The risk has been upgraded to moderate for KS and MO border. The slight risk does remain from West Texas to the Ohio Valley area. The tornado risk for the Mod area is currently at 10%. Look for live chase video later today around Kansas City area.

 The SPC said this: COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS IN KS...BEFORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND STORM MERGERS THAT RESULT AS IT OVERTAKES PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE STORMS COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

Slight Risk for Severe Weather today, 5-14-09, for SW Texas

There is a slight risk for severe weather today for south west texas area. As the tail end of a cold front that has been moving eastward across the US will continue, a dry line will be formed ahead of the front. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along this dryline border. The tornado risk for this area is currently at 2%.

The SPC said this:  ITAPPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED CELLS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR ABI SOUTHWARD. STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

Moderate Risk for Severe Weather, 5-13-09, from OK to IL

There is a moderate risk for severe weather today for Oklahoma, south east Kansas, northwest AR, MO, and IL.There is also a slight risk that goes from central/southern plains into the MS Valley.  A cold front continues to move eastward from the plains.The tornado risk for today is currently 10% for MO and IL area. 

The SPC said this:  

MO/IL: THESE STORMS MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER IL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA...SUGGESTING THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. SOME TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG WITH LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

OK,KS,AR: GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...LARGE SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY AFTER DARK.