There is a slight risk today for the lower Mississippi Valley area. The tornado risk is currently at 5% for te area. An upper divergence moving to the north east and a strong influx of warm moist gulf air combine making this area a good environment for tornadic supercells.

The SPC said this: ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER  AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE 500-800 J/K OF MLCAPE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE 70 F PLUS DEWPOINTS INLAND AS WARM FRONT MOVES NWD THRU LA INTO CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL/S FOR ROTATING STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD EXTEND AS FAR N ALONG MS RIVER VALLEY AS SERN AR AND NWRN MS.  IN ADDITION LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT  DEVELOP WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS.

Slight Risk today, 10-9-09, from Texas to Ohio River Valley

There is a slight risk for severe weather today going from Texas to the Ohio Valley area. The Tornado risk is currently at 2%. The main threat is large hail and damaging wind. 

The SPC said this: STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TN RVR VLY NWD WHERE 80-90 KTS OF SWLY H5 FLOW TOPS A 40-50 KT LLJ. THIS WILL YIELD STRONG LLVL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INVOF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...BUT DECREASING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH SWD LATITUDINAL EXTENT. LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SVR EVENT/TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/
SMALL-SCALE LEWPS /RAPID STORM MOTIONS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DMGG WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS S TX IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STEEP LAPSE RATES.

Slight Risk today, 10-8-09, for TX to Lower Ohio Valley

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for Texas going to the lower portiuon of the Ohio Valley Area. Tornado Risk has been upgraded to 10% for east MO and AR. Live video possible in north Texas today.

The SPC said this: ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE LINEAR MCS ADVANCING STEADILY SEWD OVERNIGHT AS DEEP CONVERGENCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

Slight Risk today, 10-6-09, for Texas and Lower MS Valley

There is a slight risk today for Texas and for the lower Mississippi Valley area. The tornado risk is currently at 5%. There is a chance for live video in central Texas today is things turn severe. Stay tuned for chase updates.

The SPC said this:  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST /PERHAPS NEARING 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND DIURNALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO PORTIONS OF MS/WESTERN TN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING STORMS/POSSIBLE SMALL BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. RELATIVELY STRONG 1-2 KM FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH /150-300 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.