Slight Risk today, 9-10-09, for North Plains

There is a slight risk today for the north plains which include ND, SD, and MN. The tornado risk for the area is less then 2%. Large hail and damaging winds is the main threat.

The SPC said this:  THE MODERATE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOW AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

Slight Risk today, 8-19-09, for the High Plains and Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley

There is a slight risk for the southern High Plains and for the mid and upper Mississippi Valley area. The tornado risk is currently at 5% for most of the risk area. 

The SPC said this: GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF SSWLY LLJ/SFC WARM FRONT...SUPERCELL AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MO INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEYS WHERE HEATING CAN SUPPORT MODEST MLCAPE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST SHIFTING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO ERN NEB LATER TODAY ALONG ESEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVE STORM EVOLUTIONS ACROSS THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO TONIGHT.

Slight Risk today, 8-18-09, for Central Plains

There is a slight risk today for the central plains. The torando risk for the area is currently at 5% for Texas and Oklahoma panhandels and south east CO and South west OK.

The SPC said this:  GREATER THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN-CENTRAL CO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN UT/WRN CO SHIFTS EWD ACROSS CO. DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WELL DEFINED VORT MAX MAY SUPPORT EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. AIRMASS JUST EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BE QUITE MOIST AND SHOULD DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. AS WAS THE CASE MONDAY...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING SLY LLJ LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

Slight Risk today, 8-17-09, for the Central Plains

There is a slight risk today for the central plains. The tornado risk is currently at 2% for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandels and for AL. Damaging wind and hail is the main threat today.

The SPC said this: STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE OZARKS INTO NRN OK/OK-TX PANHANDLES SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY BY LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INVIGORATE LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR PRIMARY SURFACE OUTFLOW/FRONT WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING. SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE EWD OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO FAR NERN NM LATE TODAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS/OK-TX PANHANDLES...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED EWD INTO NWRN OK/SWRN KS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.