Slight risk today, 7-30-09, for South Texas and Gulf Coast States

There is a slight risk for severe weather today for the south central area of Texas and for the Gulf states. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 2%. There is a chance for live video later this afternoon in south Texas.

The SPC said this: A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE ONGOING STORMS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLING SLOWLY SWD.

Slight Risk today, 7-28-09, for South Plains and Lower MS Valley into Central Gulf States

There is a slight risk today for severe weather today for the south Plains and for the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf States. The tornado risk is at 5% for north east New Mexico and North West Texas panhandle and for Mississippi. 

The SPC said this: AS SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. MORE DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS WRN PARTS OF TX AND OK.

Slight Risk today, 7-26-09, for MS and TN Valley and for the Northeast States

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for the Mississippi Valley and te TN Valley areas. There is also a slight risk for the Mid alantic states and for the northeast states. The tornado risk is currently at 5% for the Northeast states. 

The SPC said this: CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM MD/VA NEWD INTO PARTS OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTN AS IND UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES ENEWD. EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS...SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WILL YIELD DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN STRENGTH OF 700 MB FLOW AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE FROM NJ INTO SERN NY/SW NEW ENGLAND. THE REALIZATION OF ANY SUCH THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LOW-LVL ROTATION...NOT A CERTAINTY ATTM GIVEN EXPECTED COMPLEX NATURE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND STORM MODES ACROSS THE REGION.

Slight Risk today, 7-21-09, for lower Mississippi Valley into Texas

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. The tornado risk is currently at 5% for North East Texas. Live video is possible this evening in Texas.

The SPC said this: AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF AR CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. THE AT LEAST TEMPORARY CLEARING OBSERVED ALONG RED RIVER WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DEVELOP MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY THE MCV CIRCULATION AND WILL PROVIDE SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...INSTABILITY AND LOW LFC/S.