Slight Risk today, 7-10-09, for Centra High Plains to the Greak Lakes area

There is a slight risk for severe weather today for the central and High Plains into the Great Lakes area. This also included the Mississippi River valley area. The tornado risk is currently at 5% for northwest Kansas, north east  Colorad, and the south east Nebraska.

The SPC said this:  INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ACTIVITY COULD BUILD UPSCALE INTO A MCS OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RISK OR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

Slight Risk today, 7-9-09, for North and Central Plains into the Great Lakes

There is a slight risk for today for the north and central plains and into the Great Lakes region. The tornado risk is currently at 5% for the Omaha, NE area. 

The SPC said this:  WITH THE STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG S OF FRONTAL ZONE AND CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREECH THE CAP VICINITY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ERN NEB/NERN KS FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AGAIN THIS EVENING TO 40-50 KT AFTER WEAKENING SOME THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A SMALLER THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY HIGH LFC.

Moderate Risk today, 7-8-09, for Northern Plains

There is a moderate risk today for severe weather for the nothern plains. There is also a slight risk covering most of the north and central plains and another one for the east gulf coast states. The tornado risk is currently at 5% for the Moderate risk area. 

The SPC said this: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY OF COLD FRONT ERN MT/NERN WY WHERE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL HAVE GENERATED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG...VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH/WIND MAX...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

Slight Risk today, 7-7-09, for North Plains and NJ/NY area

There is a slight risk today for the northern plains and for the north east coast states. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 5% for the north plains.

The SPC said this: COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN ND/SD THIS AM AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ALTHOUGH AREA IS JUST E OF MID/UPR RIDGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THE AIR MASS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG WITH ONLY WEAK CINH. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AREA OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY FRONT AND THEN MOVE/PROPAGATE SEWD THRU THIS EVENING INTO NRN NEB AND NWRN IA. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXPECTED VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING CENTRAL SD INTO NRN NEB. STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.