Slight Risk today, 7-1-09, for North West Plains and East Coast

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for the north west Plains and for the east coast. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 2% for both of the slight risk.

The SPC said this: DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LIKELY HIGH-BASED...WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING SHIFTING SSEWD. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

Slight Risk today, 6-27-09, for Central and High Plains and Ohio Valley

There is a slight risk for severe weather for the central and high plains as well as for the Ohio Valley area down into Oklahoma. There is also a slight risk for the Carolinas. The  tornado risk is 2% for Iowa and MI area. 

The SPC said this:  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL ND...SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SD/MN DURING THE EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

Slight Risk today, 6-26-09, for North/Central Plains

Slight risk for severe weather today for north and central Plains. There is also a slight risk for the north eastern states into the Ohio Valley area. The tornado Risk is 5% for the central region of the Nebraska and South Dekota border. Live video is possible this afternoon.

The SPC said this: STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEB...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000-4000 J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEB...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THESE STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME RISK OF BOW ECHO FORMATION OVER THIS REGION...SUGGESTING A MORE CONCENTRATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IF THIS OCCURS.

Slight Risk today, 6-25-09, for North/Central Plains, & Great Lakes area

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for the central and north plains,   the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley areas. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 5% for the Nebraska and South Dekota border area. 

The SPC said this: STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS SPREADING QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY EVOLVE AS A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OVER THIS REGION...WITH POSSIBLE MCS PERSISTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.