Moderate Risk for the mid west and northern Plains

There is a moderate risk for severe weather today in the northers plains and slightly east of that. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 15%. Large tornadoes were spawned yesterday and the conditions are right for more large tornadoes.

The SPC said this: ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT/ MORNING CONVECTION AND WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/NEB/SD/SRN MN AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS EVENING...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS/BOW ECHO WITH A RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK OVER PARTS OF SRN WI/NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA.

Moderate Risk today, 6-17-09, for Kansas and Nebraska

There is a moderate risk today for severe weather for the Kansas and Nebraska border. The tornado risk for the area is at 10%. The best chase area is just south of Lincoln, Nebraska. 

The SPC said this: THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS SHOULD BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. BY EARLY EVENING...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM/EMBEDDED BOWS ACROSS ERN NEB/FAR NRN KS...AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A FAST-MOVING MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO IA/NRN MO.

Slight Risk today, 6-16-09 for CO, and from the Plains to SC

There is a slight risk today from the plains eastward to South Carolina. There is also a slight risk for eastern Colorado. The tornado risk is currently at 2%. 

The SPC said this: THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD HIGH CAPE VALUES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

Moderate Risk today, 6-15-09, for Kansas

There is a moderate risk for today for central Kansas. There is also a slight risk for the central and southern plains as well for most of the south eastern states. The tornado risk is at 10% for Kansas. The best chase area seems to be from Wichita along 135 to Salina, KS.

The SPC said this: THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE ELIMINATED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS.