Slight Risk today, 6-8-09, from lower MI to west Texas

There is a slight risk today from southern MI all the way west ward to west Texas. There is also a slight risk for north east Colorado. There is a cold front slowly moving southeast. A dry line is also moving eastward from south Texas to intersect the cold front. Storms will be forming infront of the frontal boundary. Tornado risk is currently at 5% for MI, but 2% the rest of the area in the slight risk. Not a good chase day for today. 

The SPC said this: FARTHER W ACROSS NRN IL AND EXTREME S/SE WI...CLEARING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CLOUDS/RAIN WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN SHORT BANDS NEAR AND JUST E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF IA TOWARD NW IL AND SRN WI. LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT S OF THE WARM FRONT...THOUGH SOME SUPERCELL AND EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURES MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A FEW DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE

Moderate Risk 6-7-09, for N.E. KS, S.E. NE, S.W. IA, & N.W. MO

There is a moderate risk for severe weather today for north east Kansas, south east Nebraska, south west Iowa, and north west Missouri. A cold front continues to make its way to the south east as a dryline parallels is moving eastward as well. Storms will form infront of the dryline and cold front bounrary. There is also a slight risk from CO to the MS Rivver Valley area. The tornado risk is currently at 10% for the moderate risk area. Today is a good chase day and the best area is from Osage City, KS to Kansas City, MO.

The SPC said this: STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY/THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT ONCE CAP BREAKS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AS STORMS MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS QUICKLY GIVEN 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. INCREASED SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING /INVOF 35-45 KT LLJ/ WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS/ERN NEB INTO IA/NRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING

Slight Risk today, 6-6-09, for the Plains

There is a slight risk for severe weather today for the Texas panhandle,  western Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Nebraska, and Iowa. A slow moving front continues to move east. Storms should be active infor of the frontal zone. The tornado risk is currently at 5%. The best chase area for today lookis to be from Topeka, Kansas to Lincoln, Nebraska.

 The SPC said this: MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL GREATLY DIMINISH INHIBITION BETWEEN 21-00Z. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BROAD AREA OF 40-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

Slight Risk today, 6-5-09, for the Plains

There is a slight risk today for severe weather for the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, western Kansas. eastern Colorado, eastern WY, and Nebraska. The tornado risk is currently at 10%. Today is a good chase day and the best area seems to be north east colorado and south west Nebraska.

The SPC said this: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP UPSLOPE REGIME AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CENTRAL CO INTO ERN WY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AS IT OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/...A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL ACROSS NERN CO/ERN WY/WRN NEB...ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE DUE TO STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SSELY LLJ.